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In the first quarter of this year, the bearing overall performance of the domestic base oil market was tepid, Peak Season and the performance of the traditional peak seasons in March and April was flat.
From March to the first half of April, the atmosphere of the domestic base oil market was light, the market quotation was stable and wait-and-see, and the expectation of large-scale price increase was not achieved. In the downstream, the enthusiasm of reconciliation enterprises to prepare goods is not good.
According to statistics, as of April 17, the price range of class II 150n was about 6400-6600 yuan / ton, which Peak Season had fallen by 200 yuan / ton in the high period.
So what are the influencing factors?
1. The shock trend of crude oil refers to the poor boosting effect
At present, the 105 air strikes on Syria carried out by the US led us British French Alliance have not significantly boosted the international oil market on Monday. On the contrary, investors were cautious about geopolitical issues in the Middle East, and oil Peak Season prices continued to be under pressure on Monday.
Industry insiders believe that in the future, any change in oil prices to $80 / barrel will be integrated by multiple factors, not just the Syrian chemical Peak Season weapons issue. Other factors include the response of Syrian government forces, Iran and Russia’s strategic alliance to the United States,
the development of Iran’s nuclear agreement and whether the United States will impose more severe Peak Season sanctions on the oil producing country in the Middle East.
The trend of crude oil is mainly volatile. Although the crude oil has fluctuated at a high level recently, in the short term, the crude oil price is Peak Season expected to maintain a strong trend in the next month.
WTI put pressure on oil prices due to the recovery of Cushing inventory and the market’s concern about the rapid growth of shale oil production. In terms of domestic base oil, although crude oil has risen to a high level in recent years, the boosting effect has been very limited in view of the weak market.
2. Significant oversupply and slow digestion of base oil resources
Since the beginning of this year, domestic refineries producing first-class oil, non-standard oil and renewable base oil have obviously put pressure on their inventory and poor delivery.
The supply of first-class base oil has obviously exceeded demand. In recent months, refineries have mainly emptied their warehouses and sold profits. Up to now, the mainstream price of 150SN has fallen to 5100-5200 yuan / ton.
Since March, the downstream digestion of class I and II base oils has been slow, and traders of imported resources have lowered their quotations to stimulate shipments. Under the unfavorable news of the external market of imported oil, the trend of domestic resources is weak and difficult to change.
As of the beginning of April this year, the tide of lubricant price rise came, and more than 20 terminal lubricant brands such as great wall, Mobil and Longpan issued price adjustment notices, with a range of about 3% – 8%.
However, there is no large-scale price adjustment range in the base oil market in the short term, and the downstream demand, receiving capacity and digestion capacity still restrict the recovery of the market.
In addition, since late March, environmental protection inspections have been carried out in North China of Shandong Province. Many small and medium-sized enterprises are facing rectification or closure, production is stopped, raw material procurement is reduced, and the impact on the base oil market is self-evident.
The news is difficult to have a positive boost. Oversupply and sluggish demand will still be some resistance to the recovery of base oil. Refineries and import traders are under pressure and have cut prices to stimulate shipments. The price advantage of future base oil market may be very important.